Pogačar's Power Ceiling: How 2025 Redefined What's Possible
His Galibier ascent produced an estimated 6.48 ᵉW/kg over 36 minutes. His Giro climbing average sat above 6.2 ᵉW/kg for three consecutive summit finishes. We've tracked every major climb of Pogačar's 2025. The numbers tell a story that words alone can't capture.
Let's start with the number that made even the sceptics pause.
Stage 17 of the Tour de France. The Col du Galibier from the south, 23 kilometres at 5.1%. Pogačar rode away from Jonas Vingegaard with eight kilometres remaining and didn't look back. The gap at the summit: 1 minute 48 seconds. Our model estimates his sustained power over the final 36 minutes of the ascent at 6.48 ᵉW/kg.
That number needs context.
In our database of estimated climbing powers — which now covers every major mountain stage across the three Grand Tours since 2018 — only three other individual efforts exceed 6.4 ᵉW/kg for a climb of this duration and length. All three belong to Pogačar. Two of them happened in 2025.
The Galibier wasn't an anomaly. It was the peak of a season-long pattern of performances that consistently operated at a level above what we'd considered the realistic ceiling of modern professional cycling.
The Giro: Where it started
Pogačar arrived at the 2025 Giro d'Italia as defending champion and overwhelming favourite. He left having produced what we believe are three of the five best individual summit performances in the race's modern history.
Stage 15 to Livigno. Stage 16 over the Mortirolo. Stage 20 up the Monte Grappa. On each, our estimates place him above 6.2 ᵉW/kg for the decisive climb. The Mortirolo ascent — 12.5 km at 7.6% — produced an estimated 6.38 ᵉW/kg over approximately 34 minutes. He rode the final three kilometres alone, having put two minutes into everyone except Tiberi.
Three consecutive summit stages above 6.2. That's never happened before in our data. Not from Froome. Not from early-career Pogačar. Not from Vingegaard in 2023.
Peak 3-Stage Climbing Averages — Grand Tours 2018–2025
| Rider | Race | Avg ᵉW/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Pogačar | Giro 2025 (Stg 15–16–20) | 6.31 |
| Pogačar | Tour 2025 (Stg 14–17–19) | 6.27 |
| Vingegaard | Tour 2023 (Stg 13–14–17) | 6.18 |
| Pogačar | Tour 2024 (Stg 15–17–19) | 6.15 |
| Evenepoel | Vuelta 2024 (Stg 14–17–20) | 5.98 |
The Tour: New territory
If the Giro was extraordinary, the Tour was something else entirely.
Six weeks after dismantling the Giro field, Pogačar arrived at the Tour de France and immediately signalled that the Giro hadn't taken a gram of his form. His Stage 4 time trial in Bordeaux — a flat 33.7 km — produced an estimated power that placed him within 5 watts of Vingegaard's effort. This was a man who had just won the Giro by nearly ten minutes.
But the mountains were where the 2025 Tour changed the conversation.
Stage 14, first true mountain test. The Col de la Loze from Méribel, one of the hardest finishes in modern Tour history: 24 km at 6.1%, with the final 4 km averaging over 8%. Pogačar attacked with 6 km to go. Our estimate: 6.32 ᵉW/kg for the full climb, rising to approximately 6.6 ᵉW/kg for the final 20-minute effort above 2,000m altitude. These are numbers that genuinely strain credibility.
Then came Stage 17. The Galibier. 6.48 ᵉW/kg.
Then Stage 19. Courchevel. 6.22 ᵉW/kg on a climb that doesn't reward pure climbers as much as the higher passes — the gradient is irregular, with flat sections that benefit heavier riders. He won anyway, by over a minute.
What the pattern tells us
Individual numbers in isolation can always be questioned. Our model has uncertainty. Wind conditions vary. Weight estimates fluctuate. But patterns are harder to dismiss.
The pattern of Pogačar's 2025 is this: across six major summit finishes in two Grand Tours, his estimated climbing power never dropped below 6.2 ᵉW/kg for the decisive effort. His average across all six was 6.33. Even if our model is systematically 3% too high — well beyond our validated error margin — his average would still be 6.14. That's still the highest we've ever measured across a sustained sequence of performances.
He is operating in a space of his own.
Looking ahead: 2026
The early-season data points are limited, but what we have is interesting. Pogačar hasn't raced yet in 2026 — he's expected to start at the Volta a Catalunya in March. His UAE teammates Ayuso and Almeida have both shown solid early form, with Ayuso's AlUla climbing numbers suggesting he's building well.
The question for 2026 isn't really whether Pogačar will be the best. The data says he almost certainly will be. The question is whether anyone else has closed the gap. Vingegaard's Tirreno return will be the first real data point. Evenepoel's early numbers from AlUla are promising. But "closing the gap" means finding another 0.3 ᵉW/kg somewhere. That's a chasm.
We'll be watching. We'll be measuring. And we'll show you the numbers.